Rising cost of the rising sea

Australia’s coastal regions face a mounting threat of rising sea levels. With over 85% of Australians living within 50 km of the coast, the financial toll could drown both communities and budgets.

The price of inaction 

A 2021 report by the Climate Council estimates that unchecked sea level rise could cost Australia $226 billion in damaged infrastructure by 2100. Coastal towns and cities like Sydney, Brisbane, and Cairns face threats to homes, roads, ports, and essential utilities. Beyond the physical damages, the economic ripple effects—declining property values, higher insurance premiums, and increased migration from vulnerable areas—are staggering: the nation’s natural disaster toll reached $5 billion in 2022 following four major bouts of floods,¹ and the State’s Reconstruction Authority recently warned the cost of disasters will hit $9.1 billion in New South Wales by 2060. 

While the risks are well-documented, Australia’s approach often prioritizes reactive measures by rebuilding after disasters instead of proactively mitigating risks. This strategy, though politically expedient, often leads to escalating costs with diminishing returns.

The case for holistic adaptation 

A sustainable future for Australia’s coastline requires a shift from reactive recovery to proactive resilience. Holistic adaptation strategies, which combine environmental, economic, and social considerations, offer a way to manage the risks of sea level rise without breaking the bank. 

While a staggering $11.4 billion was allocated in the Australian Government’s 2024-25 Budget for ongoing recovery efforts,² funding would be better steered toward resilience and adaptation planning in regions vulnerable to coastal disasters: 

1. Integrating nature-based solutions: Restoring and protecting natural coastal ecosystems like mangroves, coral reefs, and sand dunes can act as a frontline defense against rising seas. These ecosystems absorb storm energy, reduce erosion, and provide habitats critical to biodiversity. For example, the living shoreline at the Yitpi Yartapuultiku site in Port Adelaide was an ecological response to safeguard the site from erosion and sea level rise while embracing the local Aboriginal culture.
2. Rethinking urban planning and infrastructure: Smart urban planning is essential for reducing long-term risks. This includes restricting new developments in high-risk coastal zones, designing infrastructure that can withstand extreme weather, and retrofitting existing assets to adapt to future conditions. Governments can incentivize these practices through subsidies, zoning regulations, and public-private partnerships.
3. Empowering local communities: Adaptation strategies must be tailored to the unique needs of individual regions. Local communities should have a voice in the planning and implementation process, ensuring solutions address cultural and economic priorities. Strong buy-in from the community in the adaptation planning process is imperative to ensure mitigation actions can actually be implemented. This is most successful when the adaptation planning process is championed by community leaders.  
4. Leveraging data and digital tools: Advanced modeling and AI-driven simulations can forecast the impact of sea level rise and help prioritize investments. By understanding how different adaptation measures perform under various climate scenarios, decision-makers can allocate resources more efficiently. 
5. Financing the Future: Shifting from reactive disaster recovery to proactive adaptation requires upfront investment. Innovative financing mechanisms, such as green bonds, climate adaptation funds, and public-private collaborations, can bridge the funding gap.

A call to action 

In response, we’re currently developing the South Australia Coastal Adaptation Guidelines in partnership with state and local government. The Guidelines will build consistency and confidence in the way adaptation plans and strategies are developed. By investing early into sound adaptation planning there is the opportunity to significantly curb the nation’s soaring disaster toll, with figures showing every dollar invested in risk reduction and prevention saves up to $22 in post-disaster recovery.³

The Climate Ready Coasts Foundation Project provides the building blocks to support best practice adaptation planning that is fit for purpose for each place-based context. Helping decision makers and the community balancing the intrinsic value of coastal communities and natural resources and the risk to assets and values. This means establishing clear governance structures and flexible implementation models that account for different coastal, council, and community contexts and integrating advanced tech and expertise to ensure innovative and sustainable solutions are harnessed. 

By addressing the economic, social, and environmental risks of a disaster and then supporting communities and government to make crucial changes ahead of time, regions can bounce back far quicker and with less of a financial, social, and environmental cost.

What’s next 

Australia cannot afford to treat rising seas as tomorrow’s problem. The longer we delay, the higher the costs.

Hatch has spent decades working on coastal estuarine and marine management, helping regional economies survive and prosper after disasters strike and creating livability solutions across Australia and in remote island communities. Last year in Adelaide, we joined the $3.7 million federally funded Climate Ready Coasts Foundation Project as a project partner, and we’re currently developing the SA Coastal Adaptation Guidelines in partnership with state and local government.

In the words of former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, “We need to build resilience by building better and smarter.” For Australia, that means committing to bold, innovative, and inclusive solutions before the rising seas drown us in both water and debt.

The time to act is now. Contact us to find out more about how we’re ensuring Australia’s coasts remain a source of pride and prosperity for generations to come.

Read more blogs Combatting the rising tide: Addressing increased flooding due to climate change